ABSTRACT
Remdesivir and dexamethasone are the only drugs providing reductions in the lengths of hospital stays for COVID-19 patients. We assessed the impacts of remdesivir on hospital-bed resources and budgets affected by the COVID-19 outbreak. A stochastic agent-based model was combined with epidemiological data available on the COVID-19 outbreak in France and data from two randomized control trials. Strategies involving treating with remdesivir only patients with low-flow oxygen and patients with low-flow and high-flow oxygen were examined. Treating all eligible low-flow oxygen patients during the entirety of the second wave would have decreased hospital-bed occupancy in conventional wards by 4% [2%; 7%] and intensive care unit (ICU)-bed occupancy by 9% [6%; 13%]. Extending remdesivir use to high-flow-oxygen patients would have amplified reductions in ICU-bed occupancy by up to 14% [18%; 11%]. A minimum remdesivir uptake of 20% was required to observe decreases in bed occupancy. Dexamethasone had effects of similar amplitude. Depending on the treatment strategy, using remdesivir would, in most cases, generate savings (up to 722€) or at least be cost neutral (an extra cost of 34€). Treating eligible patients could significantly limit the saturation of hospital capacities, particularly in ICUs. The generated savings would exceed the costs of medications.
Subject(s)
COVID-19ABSTRACT
The COVID-19 pandemic is a major global societal, economic and health threat. The availability of COVID-19 vaccines has raised hopes for a decline in the pandemic. We built upon a stochastic agent-based microsimulation model of the COVID-19 epidemic in France. We examined the potential impact of different vaccination strategies, defined according to the age, medical conditions, and expected vaccination acceptance of the target non-immunized adult population, on disease cumulative incidence, mortality, and number of hospital admissions. Specifically, we examined whether these vaccination strategies would allow to lift all non-pharmacological interventions (NPIs), based on a sufficiently low cumulative mortality and number of hospital admissions. While vaccinating the full adult non-immunized population, if performed immediately, would be highly effective in reducing incidence, mortality and hospital-bed occupancy, and would allow discontinuing all NPIs, this strategy would require a large number of vaccine doses. Vaccinating only adults at higher risk for severe SARS-CoV-2 infection, i.e. those aged over 65 years or with medical conditions, would be insufficient to lift NPIs. Immediately vaccinating only adults aged over 45 years, or only adults aged over 55 years with mandatory vaccination of those aged over 65 years, would enable lifting all NPIs with a substantially lower number of vaccine doses, particularly with the latter vaccination strategy. Benefits of these strategies would be markedly reduced if the vaccination was delayed, was less effective than expected on virus transmission or in preventing COVID-19 among older adults, or was not widely accepted.
Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Addison DiseaseABSTRACT
The COVID-19 pandemic is a major global societal, economic and health threat. The availability of COVID-19 vaccines has raised hopes for a decline in the pandemic. We built upon a stochastic agent-based microsimulation model of the COVID-19 epidemic in France. We examined the potential impact of different vaccination strategies, defined according to the age, medical conditions, and expected vaccination acceptance of the target non-immunized adult population, on disease cumulative incidence, mortality, and number of hospital admissions. Specifically, we examined whether these vaccination strategies would allow to lift all non-pharmacological interventions (NPIs), based on a sufficiently low cumulative mortality and number of hospital admissions. While vaccinating the full adult non-immunized population, if performed immediately, would be highly effective in reducing incidence, mortality and hospital-bed occupancy, and would allow discontinuing all NPIs, this strategy would require a large number of vaccine doses. Vaccinating only adults at higher risk for severe SARS-CoV-2 infection, i.e. those aged over 65 years or with medical conditions, would be insufficient to lift NPIs. Immediately vaccinating only adults aged over 45 years, or only adults aged over 55 years with mandatory vaccination of those aged over 65 years, would enable lifting all NPIs with a substantially lower number of vaccine doses, particularly with the latter vaccination strategy. Benefits of these strategies would be markedly reduced if the vaccination was delayed, was less effective than expected on virus transmission or in preventing COVID-19 among older adults, or was not widely accepted.
Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Addison DiseaseABSTRACT
Most European countries have responded to the COVID-19 threat by nationwide implementation of barrier measures and lockdown. However, assuming that population immunity will build up through the epidemic, it is likely to rebound once these measures are relaxed, possibly leading to a second or multiple repeated lockdowns. In this report, we present results of epidemiological modelling that has helped inform policy making in France. We used a stochastic agent-based microsimulation model of the COVID-19 epidemic in France, and examined the potential impact of post-quarantine measures, including social distancing, mask-wearing, and shielding of the population the most vulnerable to severe COVID-19 infection, on the disease's cumulative incidence and mortality, and on ICU-bed occupancy. The model calibrated well and variation of model parameter values had little impact on outcome estimates. While quarantine is effective in containing the viral spread, it would be unlikely to prevent a rebound of the epidemic once lifted, regardless of its duration. Both social distancing and mask-wearing, although effective in slowing the epidemic and in reducing mortality, would also be ineffective in ultimately preventing the overwhelming of ICUs and a second lockdown. However, these measures coupled with shielding of vulnerable people would be associated with better outcomes, including lower cumulative incidence, mortality, and maintaining an adequate number of ICU beds to prevent a second lockdown. Benefits would nonetheless be markedly reduced if these measures were not applied by most people or not maintained for a sufficiently long period, as herd immunity progressively establishes in the less vulnerable population.
Subject(s)
COVID-19ABSTRACT
Global spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has created an unprecedented infectious disease crisis worldwide. Despite uncertainties about COVID-19, model-based forecasting of competing mitigation measures on its course is urgently needed to inform mitigation policy. We used a stochastic agent-based microsimulation model of the COVID-19 epidemic in New York City and evaluated the potential impact of quarantine duration (from 4 to 16 weeks), quarantine lifting type (1-step lifting for all individuals versus a 2-step lifting according to age), post-quarantine screening, and use of a hypothetical effective treatment against COVID-19 on the disease's cumulative incidence and mortality, and on ICU-bed occupancy. The source code of the model has been deposited in a public source code repository. The model calibrated well and variation of model parameter values had little impact on outcome estimates. While quarantine is efficient to contain the viral spread, it is unlikely to prevent a rebound of the epidemic once lifted. We projected that lifting quarantine in a single step for the full population would be unlikely to substantially lower the cumulative mortality, regardless of quarantine duration. By contrast, a two-step quarantine lifting according to age was associated with a substantially lower cumulative mortality and incidence, up to 71% and 23%, respectively, as well as lower ICU-bed occupancy. Although post-quarantine screening was associated with diminished epidemic rebound, this strategy may not prevent ICUs from being overcrowded. It may even become deleterious after a 2-step quarantine lifting according to age if the herd immunity effect does not had sufficient time to become established in the younger population when the quarantine is lifted for the older population. An effective treatment against COVID-19 would considerably reduce the consequences of the epidemic, even more so if ICU capacity is not exceeded.